Monsoon Progress Slows Across Western India as Satellite Data Signals Uneven Rainfall Pattern

The emerging situation comes as a crop condition review presented before the Maharashtra Cabinet revealed that the state received only 26 per cent of its normal rainfall during the first half of June, according to PTI. Adding to these concerns, the India Meteorological Department's Nowcast issued on Wednesday showed that a large portion of the country remained under green status, indicating the absence of weather alerts or rainfall warnings in many regions.

Although rainfall has been reported across several parts of the country, incoming weather activity and cloud cover data from three different satellite systems suggest a potentially troubling trend. Satellite imagery from Meteosat (IODC), operated by Eumetsat, showed dense cloud formations over the northern Bay of Bengal, indicating that the monsoon remains relatively active across Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar. Northeastern states have also continued to receive rainfall.

However, the same Meteosat imagery revealed interruptions in the Arabian Sea branch of the southwest monsoon. As a result, western India has not been experiencing sustained rainfall, with precipitation occurring in intermittent bursts rather than continuous spells. The satellite data further highlighted dark or cloud-free gaps across inland regions, even a week after the India Meteorological Department indicated a slowdown in the monsoon's advancement.

The reasons behind this uneven pattern are reflected in satellite observations from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. These images indicate that the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which normally shifts northward by mid-June and draws moisture towards the Indian subcontinent, is moving less vigorously this season. The reduced movement has limited the monsoon's acceleration across certain regions.

The satellite observations also point to the emergence of El Niño conditions. Such developments can suppress atmospheric convection over India, potentially resulting in extended dry spells and irregular rainfall distribution across several states.

Data from the Indian Space Research Organisation's INSAT satellites further supports this assessment. The imagery showed active thunderstorms and strong convective activity over eastern India, while cloud cover remained sparse across central and western regions, including Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Monsoon has Vanished

Unpredictable weather is going to make life too tough mainly for rural India and agriculture.

The situation is even more striking in satellite imagery from INSAT-3DS captured on June 15. Instead of the familiar broad cloud shield associated with an active… pic.twitter.com/ZlIzCFGnqa

— Saurav_Kumar (@SauravK1890) June 16, 2026

Even before the onset of the monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department had projected a weaker-than-normal monsoon. The department forecast seasonal rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average. The Long Period Average, calculated using data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres.

With El Niño conditions developing, concerns are growing over their possible impact on agriculture and water availability. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the effects could be relatively severe in 12 states, including Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, as quoted by PTI, directed that coordinated meetings be organised in the states expected to face stronger El Niño impacts. He stated that in nine to ten states where the effects may be more pronounced, District Magistrates, Agriculture Departments, Krishi Vigyan Kendras and other agricultural extension systems should work together through coordinated meetings in the identified districts.

The latest satellite assessments, combined with below-normal rainfall figures and forecasts of a weaker monsoon season, underline growing concerns over the uneven progression of the southwest monsoon. As El Niño conditions continue to develop, weather experts and policymakers will closely monitor rainfall patterns, particularly across western and central India, where persistent deficits could have significant implications for agriculture and water resources.